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If last year the hryvnia exchange rate depended on the economy, this year no one is there is no doubt that the cost of the national currency will determine the policy, which was less than a year before the next presidential elections.
Of course, now the biggest impact on the exchange rate of hryvnia has a president who is under the control head of the NBU Stelmakh (according to Law "The NBU his appointment and dismissal - in the hands of the President). According to Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Viktor Yushchenko is a major ideologist of the devaluation of the hryvnia to the level of 7,7-8 grn / $ 1, because at this rate the government can not fulfill the budget revenues.
Indeed, 60% of revenues 2008 budget was formed at the expense of customs revenue from imports, but it's - Wine government, which had never paid attention to the development of domestic production. Loss of "customs" of budget revenues as a result of the devaluation of the hryvnia was the first sign, warning of future budget deficit. That made Julia Vladimirovna sharply criticized the National Bank - and with the requirement to strengthen the exchange rate to the level of 6-6,5 grn / $ 1. This course of time would restore the inflow of imports into the country and would allow the government to replenish the budget. However, the signature of Ms Tymoshenko was standing on the Memorandum with the International Monetary Fund, and she could not pursue the sale of foreign currency reserves of the NBU for the solution of populist challenges.
Unable to restore the "customs" into the budget, the Cabinet had to find alternative sources of revenue for the treasury. For example, the issue of the hryvnia. Since the budget 2009, and published articles calling on NBU within three days to redeem commercial banks Bills of the Ministry of Finance. Also NBU shall coordinate with the government of all refinancing operations of commercial banks.
February 12 meeting of representatives of the Ministry of Finance with the largest banks, where they were asked to actively buy government bonds issued by the government. "We have hinted that the Treasury would have no objection if then the paper would be resold to the NBU, "- said one of the participants. If bankers are enjoying sweet balk, the Cabinet may block receipt of refinance from the National Bank - "is not a tape recorder," said the banker.
"In fact, this step is the beginning of the issue the hryvnia, which will be directed to finance the budget deficit, "- said the director of finance company" Factor "George Kononov.
Experts believe that once you start Issue hryvnia to cover the budget deficit may begin active currency devaluation. Say, increasing the number of cash and non- hryvnia in circulation can not affect the course, as the population continues to actively buy up the currency. The most pessimistic and doubtful-looking forecast - A newly established investment company Phoenix Capital, which expects an average annual rate of 12 USD / $ 1 and the peak value of 15 USD. / $ 1 in May-July. According to analysts company, a period of relative stability of national currencies is coming to an end, and soon the hryvnia expects a new round of devaluation. Their argument actively replicated by various media, which is not surprising - apocalyptic predictions enjoy the same popularity as horror movies, video space Incidents and scuffle during the broadcast of football matches. Yes and no swearing at the audience when the promised financial Armageddon does not come - did not happen, that's nice.
In turn, the advisor to the Minister of Economy Serhiy Yaremenko, who after retiring from the NBU with skepticism refers to the action National Bank and the government keeps quiet about foreign exchange situation. According to a respected expert money changers already in the first half economic decline will be more than 15%. "It would mean a drastic and rapid impoverishment of the population in general, and state employees in particular. In this situation, demand in dollars can not grow ", - says Sergey Yaremenko. Therefore, it forecast at the end of spring - the rate at 8.7 UAH / $ 1.
Spring "green"
Although permanent problems in the U.S. economy, the American currency in the eyes of financiers still looks the most attractive asset. However, they are not advised to invest in the "Bucks" for more than six months.
Now, when you can look at the beginning of the crisis and step by step to assess its impact on the global economy, many economists say that he was provoked by the U.S. to destroy the zone of influence of regional currency - the ruble, dinar, euro and so on. These assumptions have appeared after the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehmann Brothers, which was the strongest player in the credit credit default swaps (financial instrument, insuring investors against insolvency of the borrowers who received investments). Losing insurance on their investments, U.S. investors hastily began to withdraw their money from emerging markets, going into dollars. This process continues and now.
explanation for it must be sought in the nature of the investment market. The vast majority of financial investors to operate in developing markets in the U.S. - as most of the commodities, which make developing economies, are quoted in this currency.
Now when the crisis is in full swing, investors and managers of investment banks are behaving extremely cautiously and even timidly. U.S. currency is creeping back home. As a result, in the world are scarce dollars, and its rate gradually increases. But the U.S. government is now beginning another round of crisis management - including by inflating the economy with dollars.
"I feel that the bankruptcy process will end and write-offs of capital in the U.S. by the end of summer and the stream U.S. turns back - the investor will seek to withdraw from low-yielding U.S. Treasury obligations in other, more profitable instruments and assets. At the time of completion of asset prices are very low, so foreign investors will be able to gain control over so many companies - For this they will sell dollars and buy local currency for transactions Takeover "- believes the deputy chairman of NBU Oleksandr Savchenko.
Theoretically, then the dollar against other currencies has sharply weakened. So at the end of this - the beginning of next , we may be witnessing the growth of the euro, the franc, gold against the dollar. If the Ukrainian government is not carried away by printing the hryvnia, then it may strengthen against the dollar.
Assessing the behavior of the most famous exchange, we should not forget about the so-called principle of carry-trade: financial investors tend to buy those currencies that offer them greater income in the form of the loan interest rate. Excellent indicator of such income is the rate the central bank: For example, if a country "A" rate is 5%, while in the country "B" - 1%, the investor will sell the currency of the country "B" and go into the currency of the country "A". In result of the exchange rate "A" will grow, but with the rise and rise export goods produced in this country.
In terms of economic crisis, when production and export of the highest priority for any country, each government strives to contain the growth of its own currency - to make the expensive imports into the country and reduce the price of export goods to buyers abroad.
euro would slow
If a start the theory of global conspiracy (such as "dollar against all"), the euro is one of those currencies that the crisis should catch most. In fact, until is the case. The biggest weakness of the euro - an addiction rate of the currency of the behavior of the economy than a dozen countries, most of whom suffer by the crisis as well as Ukraine.
euro-zone economy in the IV quarter of 2008 experienced the most significant decline since 1995, when it started the calculation of this indicator for the 15 eurozone countries. Preliminary data from European statistical agency Eurostat showed that eurozone GDP in the October-December 2008 decreased by 1,5% compared with the previous quarter and 1.2% compared to the same period of 2007. In II and III quarter of 2008 quarterly decline was 0,2%. For all of 2008-th the eurozone economy grew by 0.7%. Reduction of this key economic indicator was far worse than analysts had expected.
was previously published data on the GDP of the two largest economies in the EU - Germany and France. Germany's economy in the IV quarter decreased by 2.1% qoq calculus, France - 1,2%. GDP of the other two major economies of the region - Italy and Spain - have declined in October-December 2008 to 1,8% and 1% respectively. Data on the reduction of the eurozone GDP for several quarters, together with slower growth in consumer prices could push European the central bank to adopt at the next meeting in March a decision on the next reduction key base rate (currently its level - 2% per annum).
According Chairman of the Board Khreschatyk Dmitry Gridzhuka, lowering the interest rate the ECB will not give rise of the euro against the dollar. Therefore, in the next a few months the currency, the dollar-euro will continue to fluctuate at around $ 1,28-1,3 / € 1.
How to save money?
In a crisis, it is important to choose not only the currency of investment, and time of investment. After stability in the coming months, no promises, and give money to the "mercy" of inflation, preserved them, like tomatoes - also not an option.
order not to be unfounded, "Money," asked the banker with a request to explain in what currency appropriate to keep their "blood" is now and what the strategy guide, about to make a "long" contribution to the spring (see "consensus forecast").
Someone is still strongly advised not to neglect the deposits and local currency. "To date, deposits in local currency yield high returns are profitable and reliable in terms of preservation and growth funds. Therefore, the bulk of savings I would recommend to keep in UAH ", - says the Deputy Chairman of the Board" VAB Bank Tzvetan Petrinin. And what remains to be the banker said, if many Ukrainians do not believe nor UAH (depreciating by 76%), no banking system as a whole (the number of banks, which have already introduced the interim administration, confidently approaching 10)
Other experts suggest to pay attention to the contributions to the euro. "At the moment it is best to temporarily free funds to invest in buying euros. Embedding in the U.S. dollar is pretty risky undertaking, "- explains the director of the Department of passive operations Diamant Larissa Root. Yes, and those who repay foreign currency credit is going to make a major purchase for the "y. is, "or to go relax in the warmer climes, it is advisable to transfer hryvnia contribution or part thereof, in the currency.
As before, most financial advisors recommend saving to form in the currency in which the gain constant income and expenditure plan to the end of the contribution, or to repay the loan. It is important to monitor the situation on the market and to the extent necessary to decide share of any currency to reduce the total savings, and what - to increase.
"It is advisable to diversify their investments, but rather the proportion of individual and may depend on the ultimate goals and time allocation of savings, "- emphasizes the deputy head of savings and bank services "Aval" Victor Tkachenko.
The terms of investment also need to be careful. While the fate of early withdrawal of deposits is not solved, would hardly be expedient "to climb" in the "long" investments, if there is a risk that money may be needed urgently. Better to leave money on the short or indefinitely (with the right to) deposit.
main thing - do not be mistaken
But choosing a bank for the deposit is extremely carefully. "Open deposit is in banks that are parties to the Deposit Guarantee Fund, have considerable experience in the banking market, as well as goodwill, "transparent" to its depositors and investors ", - advises Mr. Petrinin. Of course, we should not be placed on the contribution of worth more than compensated Guarantee Fund (currently UAH 150 thousand).
too high interest rates (up to 30% in UAH, 17-18% in U.S. dollars and euros) to immediately alert the investor. This indicates an acute shortage of resources in the bank and its attempts at the expense of attracting deposits to solve their problems. For example, to repay syndicated loan, override disparities in assets and liabilities.
"investor caution should be exercised primarily in the case rate exceeds the market for more than 4-6% in UAH or 2,5-4,5% in foreign currency. And also if such high rates have persisted for two months or more, - Cautions Ms. Root.
Well, of course, no matter how long or was an investment that can never be ruled out, force majeure, especially in times of crisis. Therefore, even when you make an annual deposit will be absolutely no harm at least 10-20% savings in place indefinitely or short (1-2 months) contribution to which almost always have access. This is a safety net family income in the event of any unforeseen circumstances, and the ability to translate funds from one currency to another with minimal losses, if such a need.
consensus forecast and assessment of financiers with respect to currency
Period hryvnia / dollar, $ 1 dollar / euro, € 1 dollar per pound, for 1 GBP U.S. Dollar / gold per troy ounce
min av max min av max min av max min av max
Now 8,05-8,15 USD $ 1,28-1,3 $ 1.45 $ 950
In March 7,9-8,05 USD 8.73 USD 9.10 USD $ 1,26-1,28 $ 1.295 $ 1,3-1,34 $ 1 , 4 $ 1.45 $ 1.5 $ 960 $ 985 $ 1010
In May 7,5-7,7 USD 10.05 USD 10-15 USD $ $ 1.27 $ 1,15-1,2 1,36-1,38 $ 1.3 $ 1.425 $ 1.55 $ 980 $ 1090 $ 1200
In the consensus forecast was attended by experts Ukrsotsbank, Alfa-Bank, Bank Khreschatik, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, Savings Bank (Ukraine) and IR «Astrum Investment Management».
Swiss Franc
Swiss economy is so far so good resists crisis, but banks - the foundation of it - have already begun to write off huge losses, which is the first harbinger of the financial storm.
sum up analysts' estimates of foreign banking groups, in the medium and longer term Frank has prospects of a significant downward against U.S. dollar. If now the dollar yield 1.15 "Suisse" (Swiss francs), then by mid-spring Experts call real franc at CHF1, 25 / $ 1. Our congratulations to his compatriots, who have taken loans in francs.
only thing that can prevent falling franc, it's a very serious problem in dollars. Although the dollar's sharp fall, if we start from the notion of the principle of carry-trade, derail all courses currencies. In addition, the franc is quite difficult to sell the Ukrainian banks at a rate close to the rate of global foreign exchange market. What can you do - non-liquid goods.
Russian Rouble
Investments in the Russian ruble experts consider less risky than deposit savings in local currency. Despite the fact that prices oil, the main Russian exports, continue to remain at record low levels, it is not very harmful to the ruble. Its devaluation in the past three months exceeded 40%, and now the currency begins to gradually retake the position.
"On average, the Russian central bank spends on maintenance exchange rate of about $ 5 billion every week, which is a huge price for the stability of exchange rate, "- says CEO FG Consulting and Investment Dmitry Poddubny. However, the inflow of imports in Russia only in January decreased by 35%. It's a constant influx of currency from the sale of energy allows financiers Russia's hope for stability of the ruble. FxPro financial analyst Alexander Kuptsikevich believes that tightening monetary policy by the Russian the central bank has led to the ruble began to strengthen on 0,7-1% per day. Now the U.S. dollar yield about 34.5 rubles, and the euro - about 45 rubles, and, according to many respondents 'Money' experts, the growth rate of Russia's currency will continue.
However, domestic financial analysts are advised to remain cautious for investments in the ruble. "The oil market has already seen several days of quotations of futures slump that could endanger the stability Russia's currency - the director of finance company "Factor" George Kononov. - "I think by the spring of the ruble may well lose weight for about 10%. "
Golden Days
In terms of general psychosis in the money markets, analysts believe that the best refuge from crisis - gold. To understand why the "yellow metal" was the most attractive destination for investment, offering to imagine a three-storey house, which will be the embodiment of current financial system. On the first floor are the goods. The second - the money, enabling the movement of goods, and the third - the notorious Derivative financial instruments: stocks and bonds, whose main task - to divert some money from the goods in order to avoid inflation. Now that the "third floor" financial system collapsed under its rubble left a huge amount of money, which was lacking to ensure the movement of goods.
This the cause of falling prices for gold, oil, metal and so on. To restore the "third floor", which is buried under the ruins of his bank capital, central banks have constant injections of money on the "second floor" - in the hope that they will gradually move to the "third floor" and restore the value of shares.
However, it may happen that the money "selling the ceiling" of the second floor, and then the whole Cash received weight fall on commodity markets. For the private investor the most affordable product on it is gold. Lead Financial Analyst, Citibank Tom Fitzpatrick believes that the inflationary shock lead to a rise in gold prices, from $ 950-960 per ounce to $ 2000 per ounce. However, in the hope of such growth, "yellow metal" in the purchase price should not bank liabilities (so-called accounts in precious metals), but the real gold bullion. Because of 200 paper-based contracts for the supply of gold (the so-called Metal futures) in the presence of the banks have only a physical ounce of gold.
Total: Correct rate of hryvnia to the dollar in the spring of 2009 did not undertake to predict even the most experienced bankers. But the probability of growth of "green" to 9-10 UAH in March is very high. And in May, the course can and does jump up to 10-15 USD. But it is at the very pessimistic scenario, which was better not to come true.
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